Mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with tenofovir or entecavir: A multinational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The benefits of entecavir (ETV) versus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in reducing the development of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma remain controversial. Whether mortality rates differ between patients with CHB treated with ETV and those treated with TDF is unclear. METHODS: A total of 2542 patients with CHB treated with either ETV or TDF were recruited from a multinational cohort. A 1:1 propensity score matching was performed to balance the differences in baseline characteristics between the two patient groups. We aimed to compare the all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality between patients receiving ETV and those receiving TDF. RESULTS: The annual incidence of all-cause mortality in the entire cohort was 1.0/100 person-years (follow-up, 15 757.5 person-years). Patients who received TDF were younger and had a higher body mass index, platelet count, hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid levels, and proportion of hepatitis B e-antigen seropositivity than those who received ETV. The factors associated with all-cause mortality were fibrosis-4 index > 6.5 (hazard ratio [HR]/confidence interval [CI]: 3.13/2.15-4.54, P < 0.001), age per year increase (HR/CI: 1.05/1.04-1.07, P < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level per U/L increase (HR/CI: 0.997/0.996-0.999, P = 0.003), and γ-glutamyl transferase level per U/L increase (HR/CI: 1.002/1.001-1.003, P < 0.001). No significant difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the ETV and TDF groups (log-rank test, P = 0.69). After propensity score matching, no significant differences in all-cause, liver-related, or non-liver-related mortality were observed between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term outcomes of all-cause mortality and liver-related and non-liver-related mortality did not differ between patients treated with ETV and those receiving TDF.

Pretreatment gamma-glutamyl transferase predicts mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogs.

Elevated serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) levels are associated with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma. However, their role in predicting mortality in patients with CHB treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogs (NAs) remains elusive. Altogether, 2843 patients with CHB treated with NAs were recruited from a multinational cohort. Serum GGT levels before and 6 months (Month-6) after initiating NAs were measured to explore their association with all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality. The annual incidence of all-cause mortality was 0.9/100 person-years over a follow-up period of 17,436.3 person-years. Compared with patients who survived, those who died had a significantly higher pretreatment (89.3 vs. 67.4 U/L, p = 0.002) and Month-6-GGT levels (62.1 vs. 38.4 U/L, p < 0.001). The factors associated with all-cause mortality included cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.66/1.92-3.70, p < 0.001), pretreatment GGT levels (HR/CI: 1.004/1.003-1.006, p < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level (HR/CI: 0.996/0.994-0.998, p = 0.001), and age (HR/CI: 1.06/1.04-1.07, p < 0.001). Regarding liver-related mortality, the independent factors included cirrhosis (HR/CI: 4.36/2.79-6.89, p < 0.001), pretreatment GGT levels (HR/CI: 1.006/1.004-1.008, p < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level (HR/CI: 0.993/0.990-0.997, p = 0.001), age (HR/CI: 1.03/1.01-1.05, p < 0.001), and fatty liver disease (HR/CI: 0.30/0.15-0.59, p = 0.001). Pretreatment GGT levels were also independently predictive of non-liver-related mortality (HR/CI: 1.003/1.000-1.005, p = 0.03). The results remained consistent after excluding the patients with a history of alcohol use. A dose-dependent manner of <25, 25-75, and >75 percentile of pretreatment GGT levels was observed with respect to the all-cause mortality (trend p < 0.001). Pretreatment serum GGT levels predicted all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality in patients with CHB treated with NAs.

Sex Differences in Treatment Response to Nucleos(t)ide Therapy in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Multicenter Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear if there may be sex differences in response to nucleos(t)ide analogs including virologic response (VR), biochemical response (BR), complete response (CR), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence among hepatitis B patients. We compared nucleos(t)ide analog treatment outcomes by sex. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 3388 treatment-naïve adult hepatitis B patients (1250 female, 2138 male) from the Real-World Evidence from the Global Alliance for the Study of Hepatitis B Virus consortium who initiated therapy with either entecavir or tenofovir from 22 sites (Argentina, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the United States). We used propensity-score matching to balance background characteristics of the male and female groups and competing-risks analysis to estimate the incidence and subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of VR, BR, CR, and HCC. RESULTS: Females (vs males) were older (52.0 vs 48.6 y); less likely to be overweight/obese (49.3% vs 65.7%), diabetic (9.9% vs 13.1%), or cirrhotic (27.9% vs 33.0%); and had a lower HBV DNA level (5.9 vs 6.0 log10 IU/mL) and alanine aminotransferase level (91 vs 102 IU/L) (all P < .01). However, after propensity-score matching, relevant background characteristics were balanced between the 2 groups. Females (vs males) had similar 5-year cumulative VR (91.3% vs 90.3%; P = .40) and HCC incidence rates (5.1% vs 4.4%; P = .64), but lower BR (84.0% vs 90.9%; P < .001) and CR (78.8% vs 83.4%; P = .016). Males were more likely to achieve BR (SHR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.17-1.46; P < .001) and CR (SHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.03-1.31; P = .016), but VR and HCC risks were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Sex differences exist for treatment outcomes among hepatitis B patients. Male sex was associated with a 16% higher likelihood of clinical remission and a 31% higher likelihood of biochemical response than females, while virologic response and HCC incidence were similar between the 2 groups.

miR-146a inhibits ovarian tumor growth in vivo via targeting immunosuppressive neutrophils and enhancing CD8+ T cell infiltration.

Immunotherapies have emerged as promising strategies for cancer treatment. However, existing immunotherapies have poor activity in high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC) due to the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment and the associated low tumoral CD8+ T cell (CTL) infiltration. Through multiple lines of evidence, including integrative analyses of human HGSC tumors, we have identified miR-146a as a master regulator of CTL infiltration in HGSC. Tumoral miR-146a expression is positively correlated with anti-cancer immune signatures in human HGSC tumors, and delivery of miR-146a to tumors resulted in significant reduction in tumor growth in both ID8-p53-/- and IG10 murine HGSC models. Increasing miR-146a expression in tumors improved anti-tumor immune responses by decreasing immune suppressive neutrophils and increasing CTL infiltration. Mechanistically, miR-146a targets IL-1 receptor-associated kinase 1 and tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 6 adaptor molecules of the transcription factor nuclear factor κB signaling pathway in ID8-p53-/- cells and decreases production of the downstream neutrophil chemoattractant, C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 1. In addition to HGSC, tumoral miR-146a expression also correlates strongly with CTL infiltration in other cancer types including thyroid, prostate, breast, and adrenocortical cancers. Altogether, our findings highlight the ability of miR-146a to overcome immune suppression and improve CTL infiltration in tumors.

Comorbidities and the use of comedications among patients with chronic hepatitis C in Korea: A nationwide cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is the second leading cause of liver-related mortality and is more prevalent in the elderly population in Korea. Decisions to initiate treatment and selection of proper antiviral agents may be challenging among elderly patients due to relevant comorbidities, comedications, and drug-drug interaction (DDI). It may be helpful to understand the current demographic status and comorbidities of CHC patients in the country. METHODS: Patients aged ≥ 18 years and diagnosed with CHC (KCD-7 code B18.2) were extracted from the Korean Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service database in 2018. Data on comorbidities and comedications were assessed and potential DDIs were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 50,476 patients with CHC, with a mean age of 60.3 years and 46.7% male patients were identified. The proportion of patients with cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation was 6.0%, 4.1%, and 0.3%, respectively and 37.2% of patients were more than 65 years of age. The three most common comorbidities were diseases of the digestive system (83.7%), respiratory system (58.2%), and musculoskeletal system and connective tissue (57.6%). The three most common comedications were analgesics (91.6%), gastrointestinal agents (85%), and antibacterials (80.3%). Lipid-lowering agents and anticonvulsants were prescribed in 28.5% and 14.8% of patients. Rate of potential DDI for contraindication was 2.2%, 13.1%, and 15.6% with sofosbuvir/velpatasvir, ledipasvir/sofosbuvir, and glecaprevir/pibrentasvir. CONCLUSION: With the increasing age of patients with CHC, comorbidity, comedication, and potential DDI should be considered when choosing antivirals in Korea. Sofosbuvir-based regimens showed favorable DDI profiles among Korean patients.

Personalized Antiviral Drug Selection in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Using a Machine Learning Model: A Multinational Study.

INTRODUCTION: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is reportedly superior or at least comparable to entecavir (ETV) for the prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B; however, it has distinct long-term renal and bone toxicities. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model (designated as Prediction of Liver cancer using Artificial intelligence-driven model for Network-antiviral Selection for hepatitis B [PLAN-S]) to predict an individualized risk of HCC during ETV or TDF therapy. METHODS: This multinational study included 13,970 patients with chronic hepatitis B. The derivation (n = 6,790), Korean validation (n = 4,543), and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts (n = 2,637) were established. Patients were classified as the TDF-superior group when a PLAN-S-predicted HCC risk under ETV treatment is greater than under TDF treatment, and the others were defined as the TDF-nonsuperior group. RESULTS: The PLAN-S model was derived using 8 variables and generated a c-index between 0.67 and 0.78 for each cohort. The TDF-superior group included a higher proportion of male patients and patients with cirrhosis than the TDF-nonsuperior group. In the derivation, Korean validation, and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts, 65.3%, 63.5%, and 76.4% of patients were classified as the TDF-superior group, respectively. In the TDF-superior group of each cohort, TDF was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC than ETV (hazard ratio = 0.60-0.73, all P < 0.05). In the TDF-nonsuperior group, however, there was no significant difference between the 2 drugs (hazard ratio = 1.16-1.29, all P > 0.1). DISCUSSION: Considering the individual HCC risk predicted by PLAN-S and the potential TDF-related toxicities, TDF and ETV treatment may be recommended for the TDF-superior and TDF-nonsuperior groups, respectively.

Incidence and Pattern of Aminotransferase Elevation During Anti-Hypertensive Therapy With Angiotensin-II Receptor Blockers.

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin type II receptor blockers (ARBs) are the most widely used anti-hypertensive drugs. This study aimed to elucidate the likelihood and pattern of ARB-induced liver injury in a hospital-based cohort. METHODS: Data of patients receiving fimasartan (n = 5,543), candesartan (n = 6,406), valsartan (n = 6,040), and losartan (n = 9,126) were retrieved from the clinical data warehouse of two tertiary hospitals. Patients with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels > 5 times the upper normal limit were assessed according to the Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM). RESULTS: A total of 27,115 patients were enrolled, including 14,630 (54.0%) men, with a mean age of 64.6 years (standard deviation, 13.6). During 31,717 person-years of ARB therapy, serum ALT levels > 120 IU/L were found in 558 (2.1%) person-years, and levels > 200 IU/L were found in 155 (0.6%) person-years. The incidence of ALT elevation > 120 IU/L per 106 cumulative defined daily doses was 6.6, 3.6, 3.9, and 4.0 in the fimasartan, candesartan, valsartan, and losartan groups, respectively (P = 0.002). An ALT level > 200 IU/L with RUCAM score ≥ 6 was found in 20 patients, suggesting probable drug-induced liver injury for 11 (0.2%) patients receiving fimasartan, five (0.1%) receiving candesartan, four (0.1%) receiving valsartan, and none receiving losartan (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Approximately 2% of patients receiving ARB therapy had significant ALT elevation (4.24/106 cumulative defined daily doses [cDDDs]), which was associated with probable ARB-related liver injury in 0.07% of patients (0.15/106 cDDDs). Elevation of ALT was more commonly associated with fimasartan than the other ARBs. Clinicians should be aware of the possibility of ARB-related ALT elevation in patients with unexplained chronic abnormal ALT.

Gluteus Maximus Muscle Flap in Tongue in Groove and Wrap Around Pattern for Refractory CSF Leakage in Extradural Cyst Patient.

Spinal extradural arachnoid cyst (SEAC) is a rare disease and has surgical challenges because of the critical surrounding anatomy. We describe the rare case of a 58-year-old woman who underwent extradural cyst total excision with dural repair and presented with refractory cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage even though two consecutive surgeries including dural defect re-repair and lumbar-peritoneal shunt were performed. The authors covered the sacral defect using bilateral gluteus maximus muscle flap in tongue in groove and wrap around pattern for protection of visible sacral nerve roots and blockage of CSF leakage point. With the flap coverage, the disappearance of cyst and fluid collection was confirmed in the postoperative radiological finding, and the clinical symptoms were significantly improved. By protecting the sacral nerve roots and covering the base of sacral defect, we can minimize the risk of complication and resolve the refractory fluid collection. Our results suggest that the gluteus muscle flap can be a safe and effective option for sacral defect and CSF leakage in extradural cyst or other conditions.

Impact of expanding hepatitis B treatment guidelines: A modelling and economic impact analysis.

BACKGROUND: Antiviral treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) may decrease the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death. However, only 2.2% of CHB patients receive antiviral treatment globally. The complexity and strictness of the current clinical practice guidelines may limit expanding the treatment coverage for CHB. AIMS: To examine the impact of expanding treatment criteria on future disease burden in Korea, a hepatitis B virus (HBV) endemic country with high diagnostic rates. MATERIALS: Dynamic country-level data were used to estimate the HCC incidence, overall mortality and economic impact of three incremental scenarios compared to the base case in Korea through 2035. RESULTS: In 2020, 1,409,000 CHB cases were estimated, with the majority born before 1995. All scenarios assumed treating 70% of eligible individuals. The first scenario removed viral load restrictions in cirrhotic patients, which would avert 13,000 cases of HCC and save 11,800 lives. The second scenario, lowering the alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level restriction to the upper limit of the normal in non-cirrhotic patients, would avert 26,700 cases of HCC and save 23,300 lives. The last scenario removed the restriction by ALT and HBeAg in treating non-cirrhotic individuals with a viral load of ≥2000 IU/ml, which would avert 43,300 cases of HCC and save 37,000 lives. All scenarios were highly cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Simplifying and expanding treatment eligibility for CHB would save many lives and be highly cost-effective when combined with high diagnostic rates. These dynamic country-level data may provide new insights for their global application.

Consensus subtypes of hepatocellular carcinoma associated with clinical outcomes and genomic phenotypes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although many studies revealed transcriptomic subtypes of HCC, concordance of the subtypes are not fully examined. We aim to examine a consensus of transcriptomic subtypes and correlate them with clinical outcomes. APPROACH AND RESULTS: By integrating 16 previously established genomic signatures for HCC subtypes, we identified five clinically and molecularly distinct consensus subtypes. STM (STeM) is characterized by high stem cell features, vascular invasion, and poor prognosis. CIN (Chromosomal INstability) has moderate stem cell features, but high genomic instability and low immune activity. IMH (IMmune High) is characterized by high immune activity. BCM (Beta-Catenin with high Male predominance) is characterized by prominent ß-catenin activation, low miRNA expression, hypomethylation, and high sensitivity to sorafenib. DLP (Differentiated and Low Proliferation) is differentiated with high hepatocyte nuclear factor 4A activity. We also developed and validated a robust predictor of consensus subtype with 100 genes and demonstrated that five subtypes were well conserved in patient-derived xenograft models and cell lines. By analyzing serum proteomic data from the same patients, we further identified potential serum biomarkers that can stratify patients into subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: Five HCC subtypes are correlated with genomic phenotypes and clinical outcomes and highly conserved in preclinical models, providing a framework for selecting the most appropriate models for preclinical studies.

Association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the risk of dementia: A nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Little is known about the association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and dementia. Given that hepatic steatosis is linked to abnormal fat metabolism, and fat dysregulation in the brain is related to dementia, we aimed to investigate whether NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of dementia. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide cohort study involving 4 031 948 subjects aged 40-69 years who underwent ≥2 health check-ups provided by the National Health Insurance Service in Korea between January 2004 and December 2007. Based on the hepatic steatosis index (HSI), subjects were categorized into non-NAFLD (HSI <30 at all check-ups) and NAFLD (HSI >36 at one or more check-ups). Dementia defined by ICD-10 codes with prescription data was followed up until December 2017. Cox proportional hazards regression models analysed the dementia risk. RESULTS: At baseline, 31.3% had NAFLD. During the median follow-up of 9.5 years, 138 424 in NAFLD group and 69 982 in non-NAFLD group developed dementia. NAFLD group was associated with a higher risk of dementia than non-NAFLD group on multivariable-adjusted analysis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; p < .001), competing risk analysis (HR, 1.08; p < .001) and propensity-score matched analysis (HR, 1.09; p < .001). The association between NAFLD and dementia risk was more prominent among females (HR, 1.16; p < .001). The association was stronger among non-obese NAFLD subjects (BMI <25 kg/m2 , HR, 1.09; p < .001) than obese NAFLD subjects. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide study found that NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of dementia. The association was prominent among females and non-obese NAFLD subjects.

Longitudinal renal changes in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir versus TDF: a REAL-B study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to compare the longitudinal changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with entecavir (ETV) vs. tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). METHODS: This is a retrospective study of 6189 adult treatment-naïve CHB patients initiated therapy with TDF (n = 2482) or ETV (n = 3707) at 25 international centers using multivariable generalized linear modeling (GLM) to determine mean eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) and Kaplan-Meier method to estimate incidence of renal impairment (≥ 1 chronic kidney disease [CKD] stage worsening). We also examined above renal changes in matched ETV and TDF patients (via propensity score matching [PSM] on age, sex, diabetes mellitus [DM], hypertension [HTN], cirrhosis, baseline eGFR, and follow-up duration). RESULTS: In the overall cohort (mean age 49.7 years, 66.2% male), the baseline eGFR was higher for TDF vs. ETV group (75.9 vs. 74.0, p = 0.009). PSM yielded 1871 pairs of ETV or TDF patients with baseline eGFR ≥ 60 and 520 pairs for the eGFR < 60 group. GLM analysis of the overall (unmatched) cohort and PSM cohorts revealed lower adjusted mean eGFRs in TDF (vs. ETV) patients (all p < 0.01) during 10 years of follow-up. Among PSM eGFR ≥ 60 patients, the 5-year cumulative incidences of renal impairment were 42.64% for ETV and 48.03% for TDF (p = 0.0023). In multivariable Cox regression, TDF vs. ETV (adjusted HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.11-1.43) was associated with higher risk of worsening renal function. CONCLUSION: Over the 10-year study follow-up, compared to ETV, TDF was associated with a lower mean eGFR and higher incidence of renal impairment.

On-treatment gamma-glutamyl transferase predicts the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) has been predictive of chronic hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. Its role in the risk of HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues (NAs) is elusive. METHODS: A total of 2172 CHB patients from East Asia were randomized into development and validation groups in a 1:2 ratio. Serum GGT levels before and 6 months (M6) after initiating NAs and the potential risk factors were measured. The primary endpoint was HCC development 12 months after NA initiation. RESULTS: The annual incidence of HCC was 1.4/100 person-years in a follow-up period of 11 370.7 person-years. The strongest factor associated with HCC development was high M6-GGT levels (>25 U/L; hazard ratio [HR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31/2.02-5.42, P < .001), followed by cirrhosis (HR/CI: 2.06/1.39-3.06, P < .001), male sex (HR/CI: 2.01/1.29-3.13, P = .002) and age (HR/CI: 1.05/1.03-1.17, P < .001). Among cirrhotic patients, the incidence of HCC did not differ between those with high or low M6-GGT levels (P = .09). In contrast, among non-cirrhotic patients, the incidence of HCC was significantly higher for those with M6-GGT level >25 U/L than for their counterparts (P < .001). Cox regression analysis revealed that the strongest factor associated with HCC development in non-cirrhotic patients was high M6-GGT levels (HR/CI: 5.05/2.52-10.16, P < .001), followed by age (HR/CI: 1.07/1.04-1.09, P < .001). Non-cirrhotic elderly patients with high M6-GGT levels had a similarly high HCC risk as cirrhotic patients did (P = .29). CONCLUSIONS: On-treatment serum GGT levels strongly predicted HCC development in CHB patients, particularly non-cirrhotic patients, treated with NAs.

An artificial intelligence model to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several models have recently been developed to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Our aims were to develop and validate an artificial intelligence-assisted prediction model of HCC risk. METHODS: Using a gradient-boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, a model was developed using 6,051 patients with CHB who received entecavir or tenofovir therapy from 4 hospitals in Korea. Two external validation cohorts were independently established: Korean (5,817 patients from 14 Korean centers) and Caucasian (1,640 from 11 Western centers) PAGE-B cohorts. The primary outcome was HCC development. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort and the 2 validation cohorts, cirrhosis was present in 26.9%-50.2% of patients at baseline. A model using 10 parameters at baseline was derived and showed good predictive performance (c-index 0.79). This model showed significantly better discrimination than previous models (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, REACH-B, and CU-HCC) in both the Korean (c-index 0.79 vs. 0.64-0.74; all p <0.001) and Caucasian validation cohorts (c-index 0.81 vs. 0.57-0.79; all p <0.05 except modified PAGE-B, p = 0.42). A calibration plot showed a satisfactory calibration function. When the patients were grouped into 4 risk groups, the minimal-risk group (11.2% of the Korean cohort and 8.8% of the Caucasian cohort) had a less than 0.5% risk of HCC during 8 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This GBM-based model provides the best predictive power for HCC risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with CHB treated with entecavir or tenofovir. LAY SUMMARY: Risk scores have been developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We developed and validated a new risk prediction model using machine learning algorithms in 13,508 antiviral-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. Our new model, based on 10 common baseline characteristics, demonstrated superior performance in risk stratification compared with previous risk scores. This model also identified a group of patients at minimal risk of developing HCC, who could be indicated for less intensive HCC surveillance.

Progression Rates by Age, Sex, Treatment, and Disease Activity by AASLD and EASL Criteria: Data for Precision Medicine.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment criteria are based on disease progression risk, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance recommendations for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis is based on an annual incidence threshold of 0.2%. However, accurate and precise disease progression estimate data are limited. Thus, we aimed to determine rates of cirrhosis and HCC development stratified by age, sex, treatment status, and disease activity based on the 2018 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases and 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines. METHODS: We analyzed 18,338 patients (8914 treated, 9424 untreated) from 6 centers from the United States and 27 centers from Asia-Pacific countries. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate annual progression rates to cirrhosis or HCC in person-years. RESULTS: The cohort was 63% male, with a mean age of 46.19 years, with baseline cirrhosis of 14.3% and median follow up of 9.60 years. By American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases criteria, depending on age, sex, and disease activity, annual incidence rates ranged from 0.07% to 3.94% for cirrhosis, from 0.04% to 2.19% for HCC in patients without cirrhosis, and from 0.40% to 8.83% for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Several subgroups of patients without cirrhosis including males younger than 40 years of age and females younger than 50 years of age had annual HCC risk near or exceeding 0.2%. Similar results were found using European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria. CONCLUSION: There is great variability in CHB disease progression rates even among "lower-risk" populations. Future CHB modeling studies, public health planning, and HCC surveillance recommendation should be based on more precise disease progression rates based on sex, age, and disease activity, plus treatment status.

Impact of HBeAg on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk During Oral Antiviral Treatment in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment from hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive status may attenuate the integration of hepatitis B virus DNA into the host genome causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the impact of HBeAg status at the onset of antiviral treatment on the risk of HCC. METHODS: The incidence of HCC was evaluated in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir in either HBeAg-positive or HBeAg-negative phase. The results in the Korean cohort were validated in a Caucasian PAGE-B cohort. RESULTS: A total of 9143 Korean patients (mean age, 49.2 years) were included: 49.1% were HBeAg-positive and 49.2% had cirrhosis. During follow-up (median, 5.1 years), 916 patients (10.0%) developed HCC. Baseline HBeAg positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. However, in the non-cirrhotic subcohort, HBeAg positivity was independently associated with a lower risk of HCC in multivariable (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.66), propensity score-matching (aHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.76), and inverse probability weighting analyses (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70). In the Caucasian cohort (n = 719; mean age, 51.8 years; HBeAg-positive, 20.3%; cirrhosis, 34.8%), HBeAg-positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC either in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. In the non-cirrhotic subcohort, none of the HBeAg-positive group developed HCC, although the difference failed to reach statistical significance (aHR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-1.67). CONCLUSIONS: This multinational cohort study implies that HBeAg positivity at the onset of antiviral treatment seems to be an independent factor associated with a lower risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis, but not in those with cirrhosis.

Twelve-month post-treatment parameters are superior in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are currently several prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving oral antiviral therapy. However, most models are based on pre-treatment clinical parameters. The current study aimed to develop a novel and practical prediction model for HCC by using both pre- and post-treatment parameters in this population. METHODS: We included two treatment-naïve CHB cohorts who were initiated on oral antiviral therapies: the derivation cohort (n = 1480, Korea prospective SAINT cohort) and the validation cohort (n = 426, the US retrospective Stanford Bay cohort). We employed logistic regression, decision tree, lasso regression, support vector machine and random forest algorithms to develop the HCC prediction model and selected the most optimal method. RESULTS: We evaluated both pre-treatment and the 12-month clinical parameters on-treatment and found the 12-month on-treatment values to have superior HCC prediction performance. The lasso logistic regression algorithm using the presence of cirrhosis at baseline and alpha-foetoprotein and platelet at 12 months showed the best performance (AUROC = 0.843 in the derivation cohort. The model performed well in the external validation cohort (AUROC = 0.844) and better than other existing prediction models including the APA, PAGE-B and GAG models (AUROC = 0.769 to 0.818). CONCLUSIONS: We provided a simple-to-use HCC prediction model based on presence of cirrhosis at baseline and two objective laboratory markers (AFP and platelets) measured 12 months after antiviral initiation. The model is highly accurate with excellent validation in an external cohort from a different country (AUROC 0.844) (Clinical trial number: KCT0003487).

Transition rates to cirrhosis and liver cancer by age, gender, disease and treatment status in Asian chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND: Increasing hepatitis-related mortality has reignited interest to fulfill the World Health Organization's goal of viral hepatitis elimination by 2030. However, economic barriers have enabled only 28% of countries to implement countermeasures. Given the high disease burden among Asians, we aimed to present age, sex, disease activity and treatment-specific annual progression rates among Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients to inform health economic modeling efforts and cost-effective public health interventions. METHODS: We analyzed 18,056 CHB patients from 36 centers across the U.S. and seven countries/regions of Asia Pacific (9530 treated; 8526 untreated). We used Kaplan-Meier methods to estimate annual incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Active disease was defined by meeting the APASL treatment guideline criteria. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 8.55 years, there were 1178 incidences of cirrhosis and 1212 incidences of HCC (297 without cirrhosis, 915 with cirrhosis). Among the 8526 untreated patients (7977 inactive, 549 active), the annual cirrhosis and HCC incidence ranged from 0.26% to 1.30% and 0.04% to 3.80% in inactive patients, and 0.55 to 4.05% and 0.19 to 6.03% in active patients, respectively. Of the 9530 treated patients, the annual HCC rates ranged 0.03-1.57% among noncirrhotic males and 2.57-6.93% among cirrhotic males, with lower rates for females. Generally, transition rates increased with age, male sex, the presence of fibrosis/cirrhosis, and active disease and/or antiviral treatment. CONCLUSION: Using data from a large and diverse real-world cohort of Asian CHB patients, the study provided detailed annual transition rates to inform practice, research and public health planning.